← Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
Fire OblationTier 2
at Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
decks
2
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
8-5-1
overall winrate
60.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.2%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1596
· median 1596
· range 1536–1656
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1218
Q3 1392
1656
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.4% | -4.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.5 |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
